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12月26日,饶瑶(英国利物浦大学)
发布时间:2018-12-20   发布人:zs   点击数:909

报告人:饶瑶,英国利物浦大学

时间:12月26日(周三)13:30—15:00

地点:博学楼1222教室

Title: Modelling the Timing and Duration of Seasonal Influenza using time series model of count

Abstract:Influenza surveillance has been an important issue in public health practice and as a result, significant efforts have been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms to monitor flu data. Unfortunately, new strains of flu virus appear regularly and hence the impact, severity and duration of the flu season varies year by year. More worrying is the fact that the timing of the flu season varies; it may start as early as October or as late as February in the Northern Hemisphere.

The objective of this talk is to detect the timing of seasonal flu and to explore the possibility of predicting such timing and duration in local areas in the hope that some form of preventative action may be possible to lessen the impact. The main method is based on generic probabilistic forecasts derived from models for low count but dependent time series data. An integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) in time series count process to is used to model flu occurrences in accordance with the count properties of the observations. We show that when incorporating covariates using leading indicators in the model, the varying seasonal timing of the influenza is well captured. The forecast for the future seasonal timing based on the model is also performed with satisfactory result.

讲座人简介:饶瑶,英国利物浦大学管理学院经济学副教授(博士)。获得英国高等教育学院高级成员,世界计量经济学会会员,英国皇家经济学会会员,统计计算及方法成员,统计和金融计量经济学会成员。英国帝国理工大学商学院访问学者,多次在世界级经济学大会做学术报告包括欧洲计量经济学大会,亚洲计量经济学大会,中国计量经济学年会,统计计算及方法大会,国际平面数据大会,欧洲经济协会及计量经济协会联合大会,国际计量经济理论和应用大会,等等。主要研究方向包括时间序列,平面数据计量经济学,统计和计量模型的应用,金融计量经济学,主要学术成果发表在《Econometrics Journal》,《Journal of International Money and Finance》, 《Statistics in Medicine》,《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》, 《Economics Letters》, 《Bulletin of Economics Research》。

 

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