【喜迎二十大・学术讲座】2022年10月6日（周四）下午1:30-3:00   李翊良（经贸院国际贸易学系）

讲座系列：院内青年教师讲座第1场

讲座人：李翊良（国际经济贸易学院国际贸易学系）

时间：2022年10月6日（周四）下午1:30-3:00

地点：博学楼1222

讲座题目：The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Port Congestion Data

讲座摘要：This paper assesses the causal effects of global supply chain disruptions on the macroeconomic outcomes following the Covid-19 pandemic. Applying a density-based clustering algorithm, exploiting satellite data of containerships, we construct a novel measure of port congestion which is applicable to ports worldwide and free from measurement errors and endogeneity issues. We use such a measure as information for estimating the SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of global supply chain disruptions; in particular, we disentangle a supply chain disruption shock from a demand shock resulting from the post-pandemic recovery in economic activities. Preliminary results show that （1） for the U.S. economy, a global supply chain disruption leads to an immediate drop of its real GDP, a sharp and persistent increase in inflation, and large shrinkages of both imports and exports of goods; （2） estimations using other measures of global supply chain disruptions, such as the GSCPI by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, would lead to significant biases in terms of historical decompositions of the U.S. inflation during 2017M1-2022M7; and （3） a tightening of monetary policy would tame inflation at smaller costs of activities when the U.S. economy is more supply-constrained.

讲座人简介：李翊良，经贸院国际贸易学系讲师，于2022年在英国牛津大学经济系获得经济学博士学位。研究领域包括劳动经济学（宏观方向）、宏观经济学和国际贸易。

讲座人主页：

http://site.uibe.edu.cn/actionszdw/ViewTeacher.aspx?NewsID=710