讲座系列：产业组织理论与政策系列讲座第30场（学科发展系列讲座总期第81场）
讲座人：王哲伟 （山东大学经济学院）
时间：2025年3月10日（周一）13:30-15:00
地点：博学楼1220
主持人：李建培（对外经贸大学国际经济贸易学院经济学系教授）
讲座题目：Incumbent-Entrant Interactions in Disruptive Innovation Contests with Endogenous Failure Rate
讲座摘要：We investigate a typical incumbent-entrant innovation contest, where there is a possibility of innovation failure for all participating firms at the end of the contest. Firms determine their efforts （R&D investment） to develop a disruptive innovation which, if successful, replaces the traditional market with a higher-value one. The likelihood of innovation failure increases with the difficulty of innovation and decreases with the firms' efforts. We perform a comprehensive equilibrium analysis, considering all possible move orders of the firms, varying levels of asymmetry in their innovation abilities, and degrees of innovation difficulty. We find that, other things equal, the entrant firm is more innovative than the incumbent firm, consistent with the literature. Compared to a simultaneous contest, the leader in a sequential contest is more innovative when it is not excessively weaker than their opponent. This result offers a novel contribution to the literature. Moreover, our analysis of endogenous move orders reveals that a simultaneous contest can emerge as an equilibrium outcome. This is a significant departure from the previous literature which, assuming a zero probability of innovation failure, predicts only a weak-lead sequential contest as the equilibrium outcome.
主讲人简介：
王哲伟，山东大学经济学院教授，博士生导师。2010年取得英国爱丁堡大学经济学博士学位，论文发表于Games and Economic Behavior、Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization、Journal of Mathematical Economic、International Journal of Industrial Organization、《管理世界》等国内外权威期刊。主持参与多项国家级（一般、重大）项目。担任国家自科、社科基金项目评审专家。入选教育部“101计划”核心课程教材编委会。获得山东大学杰出中青年学者、山东省“泰山学者”青年专家、山东省优秀博士后、山东大学优秀教师、山东省省级教学成果奖等荣誉。
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